The 2011 NFL Season: AFC Playoff Predictions

The AFC

For Reference: The second record is a team's record in their own division. Based on your point of view, this can either be important or unimportant (Sorry Raiders fans...)

1. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-6, 5-1) - With Peyton Manning out for who knows how long, plus the fact that even when he comes back he'll be incredibly rusty, lends Jacksonville the nod of this competitive division. A revamped defense has already shown its potential during the preseason, armed with a much-improved pass rush. Newly acquired Matt Roth will be the key to the Jaguars' defensive line gettind to the quarterback, as he'll probably be on the field the most out of all the defensive linemen.

The offense must score more points than last year if they are going to expect to win against the Colts and Texas twice this year. Fortunately, nothing really has changed aside from Mike Sims-Walker getting released. Will Rackley has looked very good at guard in the preseason and has a shot to start Week 1.

*Of course, as soon I say that the Jaguars released Garrard. McCown will do fine this year, and my prediction stays put.

2. Houston Texans (9-7, 4-2) - The Texans will be a work in progress this year. Wade Phillips is taking a massive gamble in switching Mario Williams to outside linebacker. While it worked with DeMarcus Ware, it will not at first with Williams. He lacks the lateral mobility and coverage skills of Ware, and he likely will have to cut some weight before being a dual threat. As of now, it's a 4-3 with one lineman standing up to rush.

The hamstring injury that Arian Foster suffered could prove to be a season-ender for the team. Arguably the best running back last year, the pressure of him possibly being out will be too much for Schaub. While he and Andre Johnson can put up excellent numbers, there will be more interceptions thrown if and when Foster is out of the lineup.

3. Indianapolis Colts (8-8, 2-4) - Peyton Manning and the Colts are synonymous. That being said, they have no identity without him. Without a solid running game and a shaky offensive line, whoever does start in his absence will have more than their share of aches and pains. Bringing in Kerry Collins was smart move, and he looked very good in his first game back, but it won't be enough.

Not to mention that the defense does not look any better than last year, all the other team's improvements are going to hurt the aging Colts defense. I simply am not sure if their run of success will last any longer. Perhaps it's time for them to go back to the drawing board.

4. Tennessee Titans (6-10, 1-5) - Let's start with the good news: You drafted a franchise quarterback of the future in Jake Locker. He will be excellent in a few years. Chris Johnson is healthy and wealthy, so he'll be at practice from now on. The new coach is a lifelong Oiler/Titan in both coaching and playing, so he has serious leverage with the front office. The bad news? That's all you have.

Tennessee won't do very well this year, but that also means that they could draft Jared Crick next year to solidify their defensive line. The secondary will be okay, but the linebackers are going to be the achilles heel of this team for now. Next year could very well be an all-defensive draft for the Titans.

1. Baltimore Ravens (11-5, 4-2) - Baltimore is an old team but still very dangerous. The defensive core has been together for so long that new additions will not cause any problems. Ray Lewis has the command of everyone on that team; they'll listen and listen well. Another key factor is Ed Reed's health; if he's on the field, they are a championship contender.

Not only is their defense good, but their offense is getting better. Since 2008, the Ravens have been constantly improving that offense and it is about time they have a breakout season. I could see them returning to the Super Bowl this year.

2. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6, 4-2 WC5) - As much as I despise the Steelers, there is no doubting their talent and execution. This is the year that Mike Wallace absolutely destroys the league in receiving and Roethlisberger will throw for somewhere around 4,000 yards.

With far and away the most dangerous linebacking corps in the league, that defense will get plenty of pressure. It frees up the secondary to do their thing and make plays. The better the front seven plays, the more likely Troy Polamalu will stay healthy the entire year.

3. Cleveland Browns (10-6, 3-3 WC6) - If there is going to be a year where the stars align in Cleveland's favor, it will be right now. The Browns remind me a lot of "The Little Engine That Could". The only thing is that their engine is Peyton Hillis, who is very big. At 250 pounds, Hillis is a formidable running back that can also play fullback in formations where both Montario Hardesty and Hillis are in the game. He's had the ride of his life since he came to the Browns, having a great season and then making it on the cover of Madden NFL 12. If the Browns want to succeed, he'll have to be very productive.

My concern is with the defense but losing Matt Roth and Eric Wright may not be such a terrible thing, given that it now allows Sheldon Brown to revive his career at cornerback and also gives Jaball Sheard a starting role at DE. Marcus Bernard will also see an increased role with the defense. Rookie Phil Taylor is taking over for Shaun Rogers, who is now with the Saints. I was very high on Phil Taylor when he played at Penn State (transferred to Baylor), and his play will be pivotal in the Browns' success in the trenches. It's a lot of new pieces on that defense, but I think they'll mesh well.

4. Cincinnati Bengals (1-15, 1-5) - RIP Andy Dalton, I knew thee well. It's bad enough that the Bengals forced their franchise quarterback into retirement, but worse to then replace him with a rookie. I'm a huge fan of Dalton, but he's going to get crushed this year a la David Carr with the Texans. Ineffective management has made this team once again the laughingstock of the NFL. I sure do hope that they get new ownership because what they had a few years ago is now gone, respectability.

The Defense is still rather good, but Reggie Nelson starting at safety is not healthy for the "Bungles". The problem when he was in Jacksonville was that he couldn't tackle, and he still can't. Funny how bad habits stick around... Unless the front seven has a prodigious year, I can only see them beating the Broncos in week two.

1. New England Patriots (11-5, 5-1) - Darth Belicheck and the "Evil Empire" (as I like to call them) will have yet another incredibly successful season. It's not just the players though, there's also the excellent coaching staff and the professional atmosphere to give credit to. Tom Brady is the key to that team but even when they lost him a few years back, they were still good. Even if Brady gets hurt, fear not. Ryan Mallett looked excellent in the preseason, and he could very well be the next franchise QB after Brady.

What separates last year's Patriots from the 2011 team are the notable additions. Usually, you find out how good they are after they're on the Patriots, but signing Haynesworth and Chad Ochocinco is an unusual move for New England, once that could easily win them another Super Bowl.

2. New York Jets (9-7, 3-3) - Rex Ryan likes to predict every year that "We're going to win the Super Bowl this year." The simple fact is that they won't as long as Tom Brady is healthy and playing in New England. There is nothing worse than having an elite quarterback on a division rival's team (trust me, I know as a Jags fan).

While the Jets defense will be stout once again, Mark Sanchez is still their kryptonite. I've never heard of a team, aside from maybe the 2000 Ravens, that could win with a quarterback that is average or worse. The difference between Sanchez and Trent Dilfer is that Dilfer didn't turn the ball over a lot. Simply put: if they want to win the Super Bowl, either Mark Sanchez must get better or they must get rid of him.

3. Buffalo Bills (8-8, 4-2) - Like a piece of fruit ripening, the Bills are going to need some time to make good on the talent that they have. I like the pieces that they have on offense, with Fitzpatrick, Steve Johnson, and a solid offensive line.

The defense is undergoing a similar process. The gamble on Shawn Merriman is a good risk, anyone who watched him play in San Diego saw flashes of brilliance. If he can find that form again, their front seven will be dangerous. Don't expect much just yet, but good things come to those who wait.

4. Miami Dolphins (3-13, 0-6) - Don't expect much from a Dolphins team that will struggle in many facets of the game. Brandon Marshall, Yeremiah Bell, and Vontae Davis may be the only bright spots for the team this year. I can see them benching Chad Henne if he doesn't improve quickly. His time to learn is up, now it's all about results.

1. San Diego Chargers ( 12-4, 6-0) - With the Chargers, it's all about how they start the season. Recently, they have been notoriously slow out of the gate. However, with a soft schedule that includes Minnesota, Miami, and Denver in the first five games. Coming out at least 3-2 will be pivotal in their hopes of being division champs.

Eric Weddle's role just increased dramatically given that he's now the highest-paid safety in the league. With a uncertain group of cornerbacks (excluding Jammer), expect more Cover 2 zone being played by San Diego. Weddle also will likely do some more man coverage in Cover 1 siutations, given that new addition Bob Sanders will the other deep safety (who like usual, was just put on IR...).

2. Oakland Raiders (9-7, 3-3) - Like him or not, Tom Cable commanded the respect of that locker room. It showed last year in their 6-0 division record, but the team's immaturity showed in going 2-8 outside of their division. If Cable was still the head coach, they were going to be my pick to win the AFC West...but he's not.

Hue Jackson takes over a team which lost two key starters on offense in Zach Miller and Robert Gallery. These losses will take time to replace, but knowing Al Davis he'll believe that they can be resolved with speed. At least right now, that's working. Despite losing late against Buffalo, they showed an interesting side. They played like a well-oiled machine, and would have scored had there been more than a few seconds left.

3. Denver Broncos (8-8, 2-4) - Now that the Kyle Orton era is still in effect for the Broncos, they can start with a solid offense due to a reliable quarterback. The problem with Denver recently has been that the team never really meshed. If one were to just look at the roster, all they would see is a solid team that should win nine or ten games. Too bad they have to play the games.

Von Miller will likely be Defensive Rookie of the Year, mostly because he'll be busy cleaning up the mess left by the defensive line on run plays. Denver will have an excellent pass rush, but I feel that they are too small to effectively play the run in both their 3-4 and 4-3 schemes. The reason a team like Baltimore has been so stifling for so many years is because they are physically superior to the opposing team; I just don't have that feeling with Denver.

4. Kansas City Chiefs (5-11, 1-5) - Kansas City was primed to make a championship run this season. With an excellent assortment of skill players and a solid defense, the Chiefs have the potential to be a high scoring team. Potential, however, is a dirty word that tries to bring certainty to a very shaky reality. They just happened to lose their best offensive player and their best defensive player in back to back weeks. Paired with an inability to score, losing by a combined 89-10 in the first two weeks makes this team immediately shift from contender to looking for a good draft pick.

Why is it shaky? Simply, the offensive line lost their anchor in Brian Waters. His experience made that line as good as it was last year. Now the pressure will fall to Branden Albert, a young tackle with a ton of upside. I am unsure about the leadership, but its going to have to be a trial by fire.

Wild Card Playoffs:

Bye: San Diego¹, New England

Browns def. Jaguars
Steelers def. Ravens

Divisional Playoffs:

Browns def. Chargers
Patriots def. Steelers

Conference Championship:

Browns def.Patriots

*If you had to ask, the Browns will lose in the Super Bowl to Green Bay.

AFC Offensive Player of the Year: Matt Schaub (4490 pass yds., 36 TD, 13 INT's)
AFC Defensive Player of the Year: Ed Reed (71 tackles, 9 INT's, 2 FF's)

AFC Offensive Rookie of the Year: A.J. Green (975 rec yds., 8 TD's)
AFC Defensive Rookie of the Year: Von Miller (128 total tackles, 2 INT's, 4 FF's)

Most INT's: Ed Reed (9 INT's)
Most Sacks: Tamba Hali (14.5 sacks)
Most Tackles: Paul Posluszny (168 total tackles)